In April, I wrote about my 2025 Mets Futures bets, some of which were reasonable…others…not so much. The first half of the season is officially over, and it's time to project my losses on these bets.
The boys limped into the break after a pretty rough June. But with this many pitching injuries, we can’t be too mad. The Mets are 13 games over .500 and .5 games behind the Phillies, who lead the division. On their current pace, the team is projected to finish the regular season at 90-72. It’s going to take more than 90 wins to win the NL East, so I’m feeling good about this one.
Much like Piazza, and Beltran, and Lindor, Soto had a rough start to his Mets tenure. Soto is definitely looking like himself these days. Even after hitting .219 in May, he’s amassed a 3.8 WAR in the first half of the season, which is good enough to be in the top 20 in Major League Baseball. After being snubbed for an All-Star nomination, I expect him to have a monster second half. An NL MVP is still well within reach for Juan Soto.
Baseball Reference has the team at a 75.9% chance to make the postseason and a 3.1% to win the World Series. With Manaea and Senga back and healthy, bullpen arms on the mend, and the trade deadline looming, we’re primed to go on a tear in the second half. It’s hard to predict a World Series championship when the league is so top heavy, but the Mets are one of the best teams in baseball and will continue to get better, if they get healthier.
This was the longest of long shot bets. Holmes has been good this year, but he reached a career high in innings prior to the All-Star break and he’s looked a little tired over his last few starts. If he can continue to make his starts and reach 180ish innings, he’ll be getting some votes. Having said all that, there’s no way he beats out the likes of Wheeler and Skenes for the NL Cy Young.
First Half Home Run Totals
Juan Soto: 23 home runs
Pete Alonso: 21 home runs
Francisco Lindor: 18 home runs
Mark Vientos: 6 home runs
Soto, Alonso, and Lindor are locks for 30 HRs this season, but Vientos is lagging behind the pace. Fangraphs projects Vientos to end the regular season with 15 dingers. He DID hit 21 second half home runs last year, but even adding that total to his current marker of 6 home runs, he still ends up shy of 30 on the season. Unless Mark absolutely crushes the second half, this is going to be an L.
I’ll be honest, I have no idea how to project this bet. If the Mets win the division, the Mendoza wins the award. Right?
